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caution: Early warning signs and future risk

Apr 26

One of the most important but often unsung heroes of health & longevity is "the precursor" aka "the early warning sign". Like that small yellow plastic a-frame that says "slippery" after someone just mopped the floor, they can be easy to pass by without much thought, but for those who are both paying attention and understand the message, can be highly valuable indicators that the time for change, in this case shortening our stride length to keep from falling, is now. Although equally easy to miss if not paying attention, changes in our day to day can be important indicators of our future health. For example, and as shown earlier this month, moving slower or less may not only be a well-known risk of developing disease (risk drops at/above 8K steps per day) but may also tell us our heart is struggling to keep up with the demands of life. It's not just physical health. A 2018 study showed that physical activity patterns predicted depression in adolescents and last year, similar patterns predicted accelerated aging at the genetic level. Although wearables make this much easier to see, it's not the only way.

It turns out it's not just movement data and it doesn't necessarily require tech to capture it. Earlier this week a study of more than 15,000 individuals from a team in China showed that sleep patterns also had predictive value. Using a very simple method to create a "sleep score" which ranged from 0 healthy sleep factors to 4 healthy factors, and then comparing those with healthy patterns (those who scored at least "3") over time, created a very simple matrix of persistently unfavorable (unhealthy), favorable to unfavorable (declining), unfavorable to favorable (improving) and persistently favorable (healthy). Perhaps not surprisingly, compared to individuals with regularly unhealthy sleep patterns, those with regularly healthy sleep had the best risk profile (20% lower risk of cardiovascular disease), which was even more pronounced in those who had a high genetic risk for heart disease (35% lower risk).

 Want to know what your sleep score is? Try it out using the four factors below - each is worth 1 point and scoring at least 3 points total would indicate "favorable sleep".


(1) Bedtime between 10P and 12A daily

(2) Sleep duration of at least 7 but not more than 8 hours regularly

(3) Daytime sleep (napping) of 60 minutes per day or less

(4) Rating of "sleep quality" as at least "fair" on a four-point scale of "very poor, poor, fair, or good"

Sometimes life isn't subtle - our risk jumps in front of us like a flashing sign. Other times, we won't notice it unless we slow down enough to pay attention. Daily actions and the routines they become often act like early signs cautioning us that something is a little off and it's time to get back on track. Movement and sleep can be great places to start. If you've got a smartphone with a health app or wear a smartwatch you may have all the information you need. Let us know if you need help interpreting it.


Have a great weekend,

Mike E.